The Illusion of Pessimism

Confidence is wavering under the Trump effect, but consumption could hold steady. Provided that employment remains strong.

Tariffs: an inflationary catalyst that is causing concern

Donald Trump’s return to the White House is shaking up certainties about American exceptionalism. Since the pandemic, the US economy has continued to surprise and outpace other advanced economies: productivity growth, investment – particularly in intellectual property – and, above all, strong household demand explain this performance.

But since the inauguration of the 47th president of the United States, American consumer confidence has plummeted. Despite the strong labor market, they fear for their job security. Above all, they now anticipate a surge in inflation, well beyond what they feared at the height of the inflationary crisis of 2022. The culprit: the Trump administration’s trade policy. While tariffs have always been central to his rhetoric, Trump is now going beyond his campaign promises, fueling uncertainty with hostile and erratic statements. In such an unpredictable environment, a wait-and-see attitude is gaining ground.

The link between sentiment and consumption has weakened

This further decline in household sentiment is part of a persistent downward trend since 2020. The pandemic and inflationary crisis have eroded US consumer optimism. However, unemployment is low, inflation has lost momentum and real incomes have been rising since mid-2022. In other words, the real economy is doing well and the fundamentals of household demand remain solid. Their strength is evident and illustrates the weakening link between sentiment and consumption. Sentiment surveys have thus lost some of their predictive power.

This gap between economic reality and perception has also been reflected in politics. Despite a favorable economic climate, the sense of economic insecurity expressed by part of the electorate fueled discontent that benefited Donald Trump in the November 2024 election.

The return of inflation has confused consumers‘ perceptions.

The surge in prices in 2022 disrupted households‘ perceptions, as they were unaccustomed to this type of shock. The last waves of inflation dated back to the 1980s. Admittedly, prices had been under some pressure in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, but this was nothing compared to the peak of 8.6% recorded in April 2022.

Several studies conducted by the Federal Reserve have highlighted a tendency among consumers to overestimate the level of inflation. This exaggerated perception is strongly correlated with a heightened sense of economic insecurity. Despite rising incomes, the households surveyed express a sense of exhaustion in the face of what they perceive as a hostile economic climate, marked by constant efforts to adapt to new constraints. Paradoxically, their consumption of goods and services continues to grow.

If employment holds steady, household consumption could surprise us yet again.

Low spirit does not necessarily translate into a decline in consumption. The decisive factor remains the strength of the job market.

The key question is therefore whether the labor market will be able to withstand an increasingly uncertain environment and a slowdown in economic activity. So far, it has shown resilience, coming through the inflationary crisis and the slowdown in 2022, as well as the Fed’s monetary tightening without any major hiccups. This robustness can be explained by structural factors: demographic aging, labor shortages, disaffection with traditional forms of employment, and a tendency for companies to retain their workforce, having been burned by post-Covid recruitment difficulties.

Markets tested by political noise

In a context where solid economic fundamentals contrast with growing consumer skepticism, markets are navigating by sight. The threat of inflation, fueled by aggressive and unpredictable trade policies, is weighing on expectations. The growing gap between macroeconomic reality and household perceptions is fueling uncertainty. For investors, the challenge will be greater than ever to separate economic signals from political noise. Employment is the cornerstone of US economic resilience; it is the only thing that can dispel the illusion.

Artikel von Charlie Carré – Ursprünglich auf Französisch veröffentlicht auf AllNews.ch